Goldman Sachs lists a “moderately bullish” outlook for aluminum in 2012. Analysts “do not see significant room for further downside” based on the Chinese cost curve, with an estimated 15% of Chinese output losing money and around 30% coming under pressure if Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum prices fall by 5% from Friday’s close. “We see a list of bullish macro factors driving prices higher in 1H12, including an end to de-stocking in Europe, a re-acceleration in Chinese consumption growth and stronger oil prices,” Goldman says. “However, we see the rally being capped by overcapacity, mainly in China.” Goldman has downgraded its 12-month forecast to $2,400 per metric ton from $2,650 previously, but has kept its three-month target at $2,300 and its six-month target at $2,400.
Monday, 5 December 2011
Goldman Sachs 'Moderately Bullish' On Aluminum In 2012
Goldman Sachs lists a “moderately bullish” outlook for aluminum in 2012. Analysts “do not see significant room for further downside” based on the Chinese cost curve, with an estimated 15% of Chinese output losing money and around 30% coming under pressure if Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum prices fall by 5% from Friday’s close. “We see a list of bullish macro factors driving prices higher in 1H12, including an end to de-stocking in Europe, a re-acceleration in Chinese consumption growth and stronger oil prices,” Goldman says. “However, we see the rally being capped by overcapacity, mainly in China.” Goldman has downgraded its 12-month forecast to $2,400 per metric ton from $2,650 previously, but has kept its three-month target at $2,300 and its six-month target at $2,400.
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