Monday 10 September 2012

Gold & Silver - Forecast by various Investment bankers



Commerzbank - Commerzbank looks for gold prices to eventually hit a record high. The metal has risen lately in anticipation of central-bank stimulus.They expect gold to continue on the upward trajectory upon which it has recently embarked & by year's end, gold looks set to climb to $1,900 per troy ounce, exceeding its September 2011 record in the first quarter of 2013 at the latest.Meanwhile, investment demand should buy silver, Commerzbank says. That said, the days of silver outperforming gold are likely to be over, the bank continues. In their opinion, silver should cost $35 per troy ounce by year's end, the gold/silver ratio climbing back to 54.


Morgan Stanley - Morgan Stanley looks for further near-term gains in gold but cautious about potential chart resistance around $1,789 to $1,790 an ounce. "Expectations of central policy easing in the U.S. and Europe have been particularly beneficial to the precious-metals complex over the past week and month, with gold and silver breaking through significant upside technical resistance," Morgan Stanley says. They expect further gains in gold and silver in the short term, but are wary of key upside resistance in gold around US$1789-90/oz."


UBSUBS has upped its one- and thee-month gold and silver forecasts based on anticipated action from the Federal Open Market Committee.“UBS economists now believe that the announcement will probably take the form of outright purchases of U.S. Treasuries and perhaps mortgage-backed securities.‪ This sets the stage for the continuation of the precious-metals rally.” Gold has already risen, but the impact of a fresh round of QE will offer further fuel, UBS continues. “Today they raise their one- and three-month gold forecasts to $1,850, from $1,700 and $1,750 previously. UBS also lift our one- and three-month silver forecasts to $37 from $32 and $35 previously. UBS expect that silver will outperform gold, and in turn the gold/silver ratio will trend lower over this period.” 


INTL FCStone - INTL FCStone  favors a long position in gold heading into this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee but cautions about the potential for a profit-taking pullback afterward. The metal rallied Friday to its highest level since Feb. 29 after a weaker-than-forecast report on U.S. non-farm payrolls spurred hopes for more Fed monetary accommodation, particularly with the FOMC scheduled to meet this week. “Despite technically overbought conditions, they still would rather want to be long gold heading into the Fed meeting this week….They  think the Fed will ‘blink’ and come out with another easing package, although one likely more modest than what investors are expecting,” says Edward Meir, commodities consultant with INTL FCStone.

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